Recent analysis of JP Morgan pointed out that rising incomes in developed countries and the establishment of confidence in economic recovery, there is good reason to believe that the personal spending level will rebound after the financial crisis lows. Further job creation and capital inflows will continue to promote confidence in emerging countries and the overall economic growth. Therefore, China's export sector is expected to show steady growth. Currency is expected the yuan / dollar before the end of 2011 will remain at 1 U.S. dollar 6.3 yuan level.
In addition, Standard Chartered Bank in its latest report is also expected to accelerate the pace of RMB appreciation and RMB against the U.S. dollar had expected full-year rate of appreciation in 2011 by the 4-5% upwards to 6%. Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS Securities believes that, in 2010, 3% appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, the RMB 2011 will be on the rise, driven by international pressure to the appreciation of 6%, year-end 2011 exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar of 6.2 million.
foreign direct investment and the pilot will help Hong
At present, cross-border trade settlement in RMB have also carried out more widely, the enterprise may wish to look at the appropriate internal process transformation, in order to negotiate more time to recommend to customers in RMB clearing, which can directly reduce the purchase of foreign exchange swap the risks involved, a year down about 2% to reduce the cost.
been ascribed to the trend of the RMB, whether individual investors or companies need to adjust their investment and financial management strategies. For an individual, should be held earlier plan to reduce foreign exchange foreign exchange holdings into yuan. Meanwhile, the weak currency financial products should be reduced investment, increase the rate hike cycle of the investment ratio under the strong currency in order to obtain the dual exchange rate and interest rate profits. For enterprises, can take advantage of various financial instruments to hedge foreign exchange risk.
addition to forward foreign exchange, foreign exchange options to hedge foreign exchange risk is also a Keyi financial derivatives. Enterprises prior to the bank to pay a premium to buy a right to make business in the future after a period of time agreed upon exchange rate and foreign exchange bank, if the exchange rate and business is expected when the time is different, you can choose not to loss of this premium. However, if the foreign exchange volatility is high, companies can more appropriate to the agreed price swaps, foreign exchange exposure risk directly locked.
In addition, conservative investors, even if the variety of fixed income investments, is also on the term structure should be adjusted. Industry experts said the currency should be based on the level of interest rates is expected to select a different period of the strength of the product. Currency interest rate increase is expected to urgent, to less than 6 months should be the main species to the product due to switch to higher interest rates when the species.
1 13, break 6.5 against the dollar, setting a new high since the exchange rate reform. In the President's visit on the eve of faster appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, just one week to reach 0.68% rise, rise to the unusual transactions attention. In addition to climbing higher and higher against the dollar, the RMB against other currencies fluctuate, while also maintaining two-way shock rise this year against the euro, Japanese yen and the ruble and other currencies have shown a more substantial gains accumulated.
dollar index changes in the foreign exchange market last week small, but the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute said Tan Yaling, a week 1.29-1.34 against the euro dollar exchange rate more variable, the euro jumped to 200 points, the euro is the key to turning negative factors, the purpose is not clear that U.S. policy change, the dollar devaluation strategy core.
dollar index changes in the foreign exchange market last week small, but the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute said Tan Yaling, a week 1.29-1.34 against the euro dollar exchange rate more variable, the euro jumped to 200 points, the euro is the key to turning negative factors, the purpose is not clear that U.S. policy change, the core strategy the U.S. dollar devaluation.
Mainland, Hong Kong has been the main platform for foreign direct investment. Data provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority show that in 2008 and 2009, foreign direct investment in Mainland enterprises were 55.9 billion U.S. dollars and 565 billion, of which 69% and 63% are invested in or through Hong Kong to invest around the world.
1 13, break 6.5 against the dollar, setting a new high since the exchange rate reform. In the President's visit on the eve of faster appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, just one week to reach 0.68% rise, rise to the unusual transactions attention. In addition to climbing higher and higher against the dollar, the RMB against other currencies fluctuate, while also maintaining two-way shock rise this year against the euro, Japanese yen and the ruble and other currencies have shown a more substantial gains accumulated.
Recently, the major international financial institutions have issued a research report in 2011, which coincidentally have raised the appreciation of the renminbi expectations. China Citibank Citigroup Investment Research and Analysis Division Head, Greater China chief economist Shen Ming Gao pointed out that the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to be about 5%. Despite the U.S. economic recovery may be better than expected, but the value of the dollar is still down the space, the weak U.S. dollar boost the appreciation of the renminbi.
the purchase of foreign exchange swaps can act
use of financial instruments to hedge foreign exchange risk
situation analysis
Editor's note
Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said the pilot implementation of foreign direct investment after Hong Kong, mainland enterprises can carry out offshore renminbi market investment, but can also multi-currency and multi-functional use of Hong Kong's financial platform, the related financing and money management.
News Analysis
addition to using financial instruments, the more export-oriented small and medium enterprises choose to adjust the operational level in response to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate risk . Such as changes in final settlement of trade (advance payment, deferred payment, long-term letters of credit), use of non-dollar currencies and so on.
U.S. financial products to reduce investment
2011 by the end of the RMB against the U.S. dollar or to 6.2
Offshore Center building in Hong Kong
relative to the foreign currency financial products, many uncertainties, the renminbi wealth management products in anticipation of the rising interest rates and still strong. Appreciation of the RMB exchange rate into the channel, but also has a strong interest rate expectations, the market will continue to forecast strong yuan assets. In addition, the era of negative interest rates also make deposits of RMB financing products as alternatives to draw for investors. Jun Mao Danping, dean of financial wealth has said that from an investment point of view, the initial interest rate and interest rates early Jiancang, is relatively safe. For fixed-income bonds and bank financial products, interest rates also means that yields will increase.
Editor's note
Recommended reading end of the year Award Great traps high financial impact of the RMB exchange rate geometric outbound Chinese New Year as finance and investment strategy. For an individual, should be held earlier plan to reduce foreign exchange foreign exchange holdings into yuan. Meanwhile, the weak currency financial products should be reduced investment, increase the rate hike cycle of the investment ratio under the strong currency in order to obtain the dual exchange rate and interest rate profits. For enterprises, can take advantage of various financial instruments to hedge foreign exchange risk.
dollar policy unchanged
Goldman Sachs recently released research report also said it expects dollar / yuan will drop to 6.23 yuan at the end, before the expected 6.29 million. Goldman said the dollar / yuan is expected to remain basically the adjustment of the original view that the Chinese government will allow the yuan to appreciate about 6%, not 12-month non-deliverable forward contracts of approximately 2.8% expected.
policy recommendations
Li added that although the renminbi deposits in Hong Kong continued to surge, but even if the deposit balance of more than 1 trillion yuan, it may not be enough to support 100 or more of the stock market and trading needs. Hong Kong Monetary Authority data show that, as of the end of November 2010 RMB deposits in Hong Kong financial institutions was about 280 billion yuan, is the end of 2009 more than 4 times.
Charles Li, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has said that Hong Kong's first yuan-denominated shares will be available during the year 2011, but Hong Kong's future to introduce more products in RMB-denominated stocks are continuous flow of renminbi funds face huge challenges is limited.
Hong Kong SAR Government Financial Services and the Treasury, Professor KC Chan, 15, said foreign direct investment of RMB yuan pilot on the Hong Kong market He said that currently most of the RMB is used for overseas trade settlement, the RMB can be used as direct investment enterprises overseas is bound to increase circulation of RMB in Hong Kong as an important offshore yuan market, the local renminbi deposits is expected to rise.
HSBC economist Qu Hongbin that the pilot is expected to accelerate foreign direct investment and the two processes, first, the process of internationalization of the RMB, and second, the Chinese mainland enterprises to invest in the process.
the purchase of foreign exchange swaps can act
can be expected that, with the pilot implementation of foreign direct investment and cross-border trade settlement continues to grow yuan, renminbi deposits in Hong Kong will continue to grow, so as to gradually ease the flow of renminbi funds shortage. Xinhua News Agency
policy recommendations
two strokes export-oriented enterprises should
Tan Yaling analysis, the performance of the foreign exchange market continued to highlight the week, pray for stability in the dollar devaluation strategy, especially the negative factors in the increase in the euro, the dollar depreciation trend of the technology is still realize that the dollar needs urgent and pressing . Bank for International Settlements has estimated that in the case of the dollar continues to weaken the yuan against the dollar to 6.35 yuan to rise around the end of the year appreciation of about 4%.
and many financial planners are Investors are advised, if the position held by overseas investment, it might be timely converted into renminbi foreign exchange earnings to reduce the currency devaluation of the currency exchange rate risk in the process. may wish to consider giving up a one-off investment to purchase foreign exchange with RMB financial batches. This investment allows investors to enjoy the appreciation and the double benefit of foreign financial gain. Residents also began to pay part of the HK store get converted into RMB yuan accounts in Hong Kong.
forward foreign exchange is entered into forward foreign exchange banks and customers contracts, foreign exchange settlement and sale agreement for the future currency, amount, rate and duration; client foreign exchange income and expenditures due happened , ie, the forward foreign exchange contracts in accordance with the prescribed currency, amount, exchange rate for foreign exchange settlement, or arbitrage, both parties must fulfill the contract.
dollar policy unchanged
increase of RMB 2011 or more than 6%
relative to the foreign currency financial products many uncertainties, the renminbi wealth management products in anticipation of the rising interest rates and still strong. Appreciation of the RMB exchange rate into the channel, but also has a strong interest rate expectations, the market will continue to forecast strong yuan assets. In addition, the era of negative interest rates also make deposits of RMB financing products as alternatives to draw for investors. Jun Mao Danping, dean of financial wealth has said that from an investment point of view, the initial interest rate and interest rates early Jiancang, is relatively safe. For fixed-income bonds and bank financial products, interest rates also means that yields will increase.
expired products from the real rate of return perspective, the Bank of China (601988, shares) issued by the Australian pool Po 1011P-term variable products, the highest yield to maturity, 4%, the product To maintain the fixed income financial products, investments denominated in Australian dollars. Issued by the Bank of Shanghai,
Personal Finance
In addition, Standard Chartered Bank in its latest report is also expected to accelerate the pace of RMB appreciation and RMB against the U.S. dollar had expected full-year rate of appreciation in 2011 by the 4-5% upwards to 6%. Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS Securities believes that, in 2010, 3% appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, the RMB 2011 will be on the rise, driven by international pressure to the appreciation of 6%, year-end 2011 exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar of 6.2 million.
Personal Finance
more RMB investment products is expected to have launched
before the People's Bank of China to Notice No. 1 of 2011 issued in the form of Meanwhile, the mainland bank branches or correspondent banks in Hong Kong, RMB can be obtained from the Mainland to invest in companies issuing RMB loans.
However, whether the forward exchange settlement and sales, or foreign exchange options, which itself has a certain financial instruments, the risk of fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate movements the same misjudgment will cause losses to businesses. Enterprises or individuals forward or options transactions, foreign exchange should be in control, so many analysts also suggested that British enterprises to do more consultation when hedging related financial institutions.
recent analysis of JP Morgan pointed out that rising incomes in developed countries and the establishment of confidence in economic recovery, there is good reason to believe that the personal spending level will rebound after the financial crisis lows. Further job creation and capital inflows will continue to promote confidence in emerging countries and the overall economic growth. Therefore, China's export sector is expected to show steady growth. Currency is expected the yuan / dollar before the end of 2011 will remain at 1 U.S. dollar 6.3 yuan level.
said HKMA Chief Executive Norman Chan, foreign direct investment and the pilot will further strengthen trade and investment in the use of RMB circulation, which helps to promote Hong Kong's offshore yuan market, and in the yuan play a role in the process, the service entity in RMB economic activity.
yuan against the dollar all the way up, not only the individual foreign exchange savings in the risk of devaluation, but also makes the export-oriented enterprises are facing more and more exchange rate risk. Reporter from the Bank of China branch in Guangzhou Five Rams learned since the end of last year, more and more exporters to consult the relevant exchange rate the bank business, hope of financial products through banks, as much as possible reduce the appreciation of the currency exchange rate losses caused.
U.S. financial products to reduce investment
In addition, a weaker dollar makes U.S. tourist spending picking up again, shopping and studying in the United States costs are further down. Experts pointed out that during the Spring Festival of the public who intend to travel abroad, purchase of foreign currency exchange is now a good time, two-way fluctuation mechanism of the RMB to strengthen, in fact, the RMB exchange reform since the continuous and less likely to rise this situation, the current stage of the RMB exchange rate soaring, it is short-term demand for dollars to purchase foreign exchange to purchase foreign exchange good time.
situation analysis
CITIC Bank (601,998, stock it) pointed out that the corporate banking general manager Wang Penghu, the face of continued appreciation of the renminbi, export-oriented enterprises are mainly two ways to deal through: First, forward foreign exchange through financial institutions business, to lock the company's exchange rate risk; first choice at the operational level to sign a short list, or select a strong currency in the settlement. This can effectively avoid the appreciation of the renminbi to the enterprise losses.
In addition, a weaker dollar makes U.S. tourist spending picking up again, shopping and studying in the United States costs are further down. Experts pointed out that during the Spring Festival of the public who intend to travel abroad, purchase of foreign currency exchange is now a good time, two-way fluctuation mechanism of the RMB to strengthen, in fact, the RMB exchange reform since the continuous and less likely to rise this situation, the current stage of the RMB exchange rate soaring, it is short-term demand for dollars to purchase foreign exchange to purchase foreign exchange good time.
Tan Yaling analysis, the performance of the foreign exchange market continued to highlight the week, pray for stability in the dollar devaluation strategy, especially the negative factors in the increase in the euro, the dollar depreciation trend of the technology is still realize that the dollar needs urgent and pressing . Bank for International Settlements has estimated that in the case of the dollar continues to weaken the yuan against the dollar to 6.35 yuan to rise around the end of the year appreciation of about 4%.
commonly used the market exchange rate hedging financial instruments are mainly forward foreign exchange contracts, currency futures, exchange rate swaps.
Southern Daily reporter Huang Qian Wei Tian Zhiming
increase of RMB 2011 or more than 6%
enterprise should
Recently, the major international financial institutions have issued a research report in 2011, which coincidentally have raised the appreciation of the renminbi expectations. China Citibank Citigroup Investment Research and Analysis Division Head, Greater China chief economist Shen Ming Gao pointed out that the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to be about 5%. Despite the U.S. economic recovery may be better than expected, but the value of the dollar is still down the space, the weak U.S. dollar boost the appreciation of the renminbi.
weekly financial products based on financial statistics show that last week, compared with RMB financing products are still hot, issued a total of 155 RMB products, accounting for 73.11% of the overall number of issued. But the dollar in foreign currency financial products are also many products, last week issued 15 accounting for 7.08% total number issued. The product was launched last week, the expected rate of return is still the highest in two Australian dollar and the RMB currency rate hike cycle in the species.
experts also cautioned that the current foreign currency swaps to buy financial products should be cautious. If the hand-held dollars, the continuing weakness of the euro and other currencies can be exchanged for a consideration of RMB investment. In anticipation of the current interest rate of RMB yuan of financial products can gain the most, while the dollar may be appropriate to reduce the financial product. In accordance with the market forecast of RMB against the U.S. dollar this year will increase about 5%. Insiders have calculated that an account balance, the current U.S. financial products one-year rate of return of 3%, while the renminbi is not difficult to obtain financial gain more than 4% of the proceeds, and if the dollar holds financial products, not only on the exchange rate will be 5 % of the losses, the interest of the U.S. dollar is also a loss of zero interest rates a lot.
2011 by the end of the RMB against the U.S. dollar or to 6.2
As investors, Professor Chan argues that when capital increase of RMB in Hong Kong, more appropriate RMB investment products is expected to launch, so that investors have more choices. He said the upcoming January 17 to 18 in Hong Kong at the Asian Financial Forum, the participating officials and scholars will focus on the internationalization of the RMB, and Asia in the management of opportunities and challenges, which will help Hong Kong to further clear positioning.
Goldman Sachs recently released research report also said it expects dollar / yuan will drop to 6.23 yuan at the end, before the expected 6.29 million. Goldman said the dollar / yuan is expected to remain basically the adjustment of the original view that the Chinese government will allow the yuan to appreciate about 6%, not 12-month non-deliverable forward contracts of approximately 2.8% expected.
fact, restrict the flow of funds of RMB capital market has been the launch of renminbi in Hong Kong a major obstacle to investment products.
Powei addition to continued U.S. dollar against RMB, U.S. dollar against the yen last week in the 82-83 yen exchange rate relatively stable level. U.S. dollar against the pound sterling dollar exchange rate 1.55-1.58 big changes in the sterling exchange rate depreciation of the dollar has also been presented. USDCHF exchange rate between the Swiss franc is relatively stable in the 0.96-0.97. U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar Canadian dollar exchange rate stable at 0.98-0.99 level. Australian dollar exchange rate of U.S. dollar, compared with 0.98-0.99 range, and even re-emergence of parity interval. New Zealand dollar exchange rate stable at $ 0.76, the main trend followers weekend fell to $ 0.77.
to do software development, Mr. Wang has been doing systems development to foreign companies are generally settled in U.S. dollars. Therefore, customers are now signing with Mr. Wang, the general will be six months period to 3 months or less.
the financial sector, the central bank move to promote the internationalization of RMB is an important step. From Hong Kong's point of view, the renminbi foreign direct investment in view of the pilot is expected to significantly improve the liquidity of the renminbi funds overseas, Hong Kong's renminbi offshore markets will become more active and effective solution to the Hong Kong issue limited amount of RMB funds will help to increase Hong Kong RMB deposits and financial products, which forces Offshore Center to help build Hong Kong.
Qu Hongbin that foreign direct investment and launched a pilot project, will provide another effective offshore market yuan money supply channel, which means yuan channels complement each other, outside the yuan float will increase significantly contribute to the cycle of foreign currency funding and investment.
Powei addition to continued U.S. dollar against RMB, U.S. dollar against the yen last week in the 82-83 yen exchange rate relatively stable level. U.S. dollar against the pound sterling dollar exchange rate 1.55-1.58 big changes in the sterling exchange rate depreciation of the dollar has also been presented. USDCHF exchange rate between the Swiss franc is relatively stable in the 0.96-0.97. U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar Canadian dollar exchange rate stable at 0.98-0.99 level. Australian dollar exchange rate of U.S. dollar, compared with 0.98-0.99 range, and even re-emergence of parity interval. New Zealand dollar exchange rate stable at $ 0.76, the main trend followers weekend fell to $ 0.77.
and many financial planners are Investors are advised, if the position held by overseas investment, it might be timely converted into renminbi foreign exchange earnings to reduce the currency devaluation of the currency exchange rate risk in the process. may wish to consider giving up a one-off investment to purchase foreign exchange with RMB financial batches. This investment allows investors to enjoy the appreciation and the double benefit of foreign financial gain. Residents also began to pay part of the HK store get converted into RMB yuan accounts in Hong Kong.
Bank of China branch in Guangzhou Wuyang financial division, told reporters last week, they meet a client, the client is expected after six months, a sum of $ 5,000,000 in revenue. In order to avoid the risks of depreciation of the dollar, the client signed with the bank a sum of RMB against U.S. dollar 6-month forward foreign exchange transactions, the exchange rate locked in affordable range. price differences, enterprises in forward foreign exchange hedge at the same time, the need to select different banks offer.
change the trade settlement
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