Murphy's law, herding, twenty-eight law, Matthew (Reprinted)

 Murphy's Law, twenty-eight law, Matthew, watches theorem, Occam's razor, etc. 13 is the golden rule of life around.
one, Murphy's Law
1949, the Air Force captain named Murphy engineer, that his coworkers was a hapless, inadvertently opened a joke: , gradually lost its original sentence joke limitations, evolved into a variety of forms, one of the most prevalent form is: occur and cause the maximum possible loss. to do something, and one of those ways can result in a catastrophe, then someone will do it.
(If you have two options, one of which will lead to disaster, then surely someone will make such a choice.)
According to always wrong;
four, if you are worried about something happening, then it is more likely to occur.
we have such an experience, if a car stopped in the street ready to go to a tight schedule date, you will find on the street is that all the taxis are not a guest you do not pay any attention, and when you do not need car when they found a lot of cruising around in your empty, just waiting for you a bayan, the car at any time stopped in front of you. If you break the mirror in the bathroom a month ago, although careful inspection and washing, did not dare to walk barefoot, such as over a period of time determined there was no danger, and the unfortunate thing is still occurring, you still broken glass bar of the foot. If you put a piece of bread out of your new carpet, which both sides are likely to touch the ground. but you put one side coated with a jam in the bread out of the new carpet, and often there is a jam that side down.
Murphy's Law tells us that easy to make mistakes is human weakness inherent, regardless of technology and more advanced, accidents will happen. and that means we have to solve the problem the higher the Ming and face more serious trouble. So We should be as much as possible in advance was very thoughtful, thorough, or loss if the unfortunate does occur, to respond to it with a smile, the key is to sum up the mistakes, rather than attempting to cover it up.
2003 the United States ; Columbia confirms Murphy's Law. such a complex system is sure to be problem, not today, tomorrow and reasonable. an accident, people always want to actively look for cause of the accident in order to prevent the next accident, it is generally rational people are can understand, otherwise, or from giving up space industry, or allow the next accident from happening again, this is not the result of a country can accept.
people never become God, when you self-important, the Law such as the old saying small, but accumulated to a certain extent, also the weakest link from the outbreak. So the key is to clean corners usually eliminate hidden dangers and reduce the accident probability.
afraid of what to what, a good state is just technical points and forget their own.
Here is some variant of Murphy's Law or inference.
philosophy of life
1. Do not try to teach a cat to sing, so not only will not have results, but also provoke the cat unhappy?
2. Do not fool quarrel, or others will be confused, in the end who is the fool?
3. Do not think he is very important, because without you, tomorrow the sun rose up from the east is still the same?
4. laugh smile, tomorrow may not be better than today.
5. a good start, may not have good results; bad start, the result is often worse.
attitude of life principle
6. If you need help with a money, friends, he will remember you in his next mm when the money needed.
7. have the ability to let him do mm; ability to teach him not to do; he can not do the management.
8. You arrived early, the meeting was canceled; you arrive on time, but we have to wait; late is late.
9. you bring with travel, the more do not want to be seen, the more you'll meet an acquaintance.
love significance
10. you love the people, always think you love him because: he reminds you of your old lover.
11. your last bite the bullet and send love letters; delivery time for each other How long have you go back long time.
living knowledge
12. something better, the more useless.
13. A 60-day warranty is not a failure to ensure equal 61 days must be broken.
14. things are of no use long time to be lost; something of a lost, often have to use it.
15. you have lost something, the first find a place, often the last place that might be found.
16. you tend to find is not what you are looking for.
17. When you go out and buy popcorn, appeared on the screen happens wonderful shot.
18. one row is always moving faster; you change to another row, the row of your original points, compared to start moving faster; the longer you stand, the more likely the wrong row.
19. How long a minute? It depends on what you are squatting on the toilet inside or outside in the toilet, etc..
there is humor about herding
: oilman to heaven to attend the meeting, one that has been packed into the conference room, no place taking a seat, so he was struck, shouted: go to hell, and soon in heaven, who later left with a. At this time, the tycoon thought, we all ran past, is it really the discovery of oil the hell? So, he hurried to the go to hell.
laugh, the wise you should soon be able to understand what is herding. sheep is a very scattered organization, usually with the left and right is blind hit, but once there is a only the sheep to move, the other will without hesitation herd sheep, completely ignoring the wolf and the next may have better grass not far away. herding is a metaphor people have a herd mentality, herd mentality can easily lead to blind obedience, and obedience will often fall into a fraud or failure.
French scientist Jean - Henry. Fabre has done a pine experiment. He put some pine on the edge of a pot to make it inclusive phase connected in a circle, not far from the pot, and sprinkle some pine caterpillars like to eat pine needles, pine to start a flower pot with a round to go round and round. This walk is seven days and nights, Dendrolimus give all die of hunger tired. And sadly, as long as any of them to change course be able to eat a little mouth of pine needles.
animals so people are not necessarily any better. social psychologists found affect the conformity of the most important factor is the number of people holding an opinion and not the opinion itself. were more convincing in itself, very few people in the unanimous cases, stick to their different views. sharp eyes, pediment .2001, once the bubble burst, vanity to make casual, we discovered that in the frenzy of the market atmosphere, only the leader in profit, the rest follow suit have become victims. the media often serve as the instigation of herding who, after rumors that the newspaper will become a recognized fact, can become a point of view of public opinion through television. processions and demonstrations, the election campaign, repression of dissidents and other political trickery not in a use of herding.
, of course, any remaining there is always something reasonable, herding does not seem to merit. This is the nature of the selection rules and expectations in the information asymmetry under uncertainty, to see how others do indeed lower the risk (which in game theory, Nash equilibrium are also described.) herding demonstration study can produce synergy effects and aggregation, which for the protection and development of vulnerable groups is helpful.
Herding told us:
others The information is not the whole letter does not do not believe, all things have their own judgments, surprisingly able to win, but the follower has the advantage, often law is not fixed!
the scenery around you want to comment, first to climb your roof. mm Goethe
II twenty-eight rule
1897, the Italian economist Pareto in the 19th century British society at all levels of wealth and income statistical analysis found that: 80% of the social wealth is concentrated in 20% hands, while 80% of people with only 20% of the wealth of society, this is the Department is not. Appendix: broken windows theory
in commodity marketing, businesses tend to think that as important as all the customers; all business, each product must pay a similar effort, all opportunities must be seized. and twenty-eight law 20% of the companies may be produced; 20% of the customers may bring 80% of the businesses profits. follow the services to achieve a multiplier effect. PriceSmart members of the United States always adhere to membership stores, is based on this philosophy.
thing on the pursuit of excellence, without demanding good performance on everything there; lock the few completed goals in life, without having to pursue all the opportunities.
III, Matthew
Matthew , the first servant said: you gave me a silver, I have earned a five. have kept in the towel, I'm afraid of losing, has not been out. be taken from him. any more, even to him, called him the more the better. concerned, Matthew tells us that, in order to maintain its advantage in a particular field, we must rapidly expand in this area. When you become a leader in the field when the same even if the return on investment, you can more easily weaker than their counterparts to obtain greater benefits. and if one area does not expand rapidly in strength, we must constantly look for new areas of development, to ensure better returns.
four, watch Theorem < br> Watch theorem is that a person has a table, you can know what time it is, and when he has two tables not being able to determine. two tables and can not tell a person a more accurate time, but will watch people lose confidence in accurate time. you have to do is to select the more reliable one, try to calibrate it and use it as your standard, follow its guidelines. remember the words of Nietzsche: Brother, if you are lucky, you just have a moral and not too much, so you cross the bridge easier. , regardless of success or failure can be complacent. However, many people are troubled: they were against one chose the path I did not like, for the depressed life, and even made the subject of noteworthy achievements, but also never felt the joy of success.
watch Theorem in business management gives us a very intuitive inspiration is the same person or the management of the same organization can not use two different methods, can not set two different goals. or even each individual can not be two people to simultaneously command, otherwise this person will make the enterprise or loss. watch another layer of meaning within the meaning of Theorem is that each one can choose two different values at the same time, otherwise your actions will be chaos.
five, Law is the most intuitive interpretation: not worth doing, is not worth doing, this law seems simple enough, but its importance has always been sparse forget. not worth the laws reflects a psychological, If a person is engaged in a self that is not worth doing, tend to remain cynical, half-hearted attitude. not only the success rate is small, and even if successful, it will not feel much sense of accomplishment.
which things worth doing it? Generally speaking, this depends on three factors.
1, and values. about values that we have talked a lot, only thing consistent with our values, we will do it with enthusiasm.
2 , personality and temperament. a person do with his personality and temperament of a complete departure from the job, he is very difficult to do, such as what the person has become a good archivist, or a shy and had to day and different dealing with people.
3, the reality of the situation. the same job, go on to do in different situations, gives us the feeling is different. For example, in a large company, if you initially do is work to run errands and do odd jobs , you might think is not worth it, but once you were promoted to foreman or manager, you would not think of.
sum up, the job is worth doing: our values for our personality and temperament, and allows us to see hope. If your job does not have these three factors, you should consider for a more appropriate work, and strive to do it.
Therefore, individual, should be available in a variety of goals and values of the selected one, and then strive for. peace of mind. And on a business or organization, will have a good personality characteristics of employees, a reasonable distribution of work, such as a strong desire for achievement alone or lead employees to accomplish a certain risk and difficulty of the work, and in its completion time given the recognition and praise; to the staff attached to a strong desire to participate in more groups to a common work; to the strong desire for power as an employee in charge of ability to adapt with it. At the same time to strengthen the staff business goals of the identity, so that employees feel that their work is worth it, so as to stimulate the enthusiasm of employees.
six principles
management expert Peter Lawrence. D. Peter (Laurence.J.Peter ), cattle in Canada 1917 Vancouver, Washington State in 1957 by the American bachelor's degree, 6 years later received his Ph.D. school education, his rich background, learned, many works, his name was also income of the Failure analysis and summarized examples out. the specific details: good performance (competence), will be promoted to higher level positions; thereafter, will be further qualified if it continues to improve, up to the job he can not do. which exported Peter inference is that will eventually be an incompetent occupied by workers of their work. hierarchical organization of work tasks is not yet reached the most incompetent staff to complete the class. quotient (PQ) is zero. As for how to upgrade to this high speed, there are two methods. One. is above the ; promote Science (hierarchiolgy). unlock all levels of the system of science is the key to the mystery, and therefore to understand the key to the whole structure of civilization. Any exposure to commercial, industrial, political, administrative, military Hang, religion, education, everyone in all walks of life and hierarchical organization are closely related, also are subject to the control of Peter Principle. Of course, the assumptions of the principle is: time is long enough, the five levels of organization have enough class. Peter Principle is considered to be associated with Parkinson's law.
Parkinson (CNParkinson) is a famous social theorist, he has carefully observed and interesting description of the cumulative level of the phenomenon of redundant tissue. He assumed, senior director of the organization by division and conquer strategy, deliberately reduced organizational efficiency, to enhance their own power, a phenomenon that Parkinson said, sincere pursuit of efficiency (though futile). As Peter Principle shows, many or most of the charge will have reached the level of their incompetence. These people can not improve the existing situation, as all the staff did the best, so in order to further enhance efficiency, they had to hire more staff. employees to increase efficiency may make a temporary increase, but the newly promoted officers for the final process will reach the level of incompetence, so the only way to improve again, additional workers, again get a temporary high efficiency, and then another. times gradually attributed to inefficiency. thus making the organization more than the actual requirement.
Peter Principle first published in September 1960 a federal contribution workshops, the audience is a group responsible for education research projects, and has just been promoted to project manager, Peter thought most of them speech summoned hostility and ridicule, but Peter still decided to unique satire show Peter Principle, even though all the case studies have been accurately compiled, and the reference data are also consistent with the fact that the final version in 1965 and completed in spring, then a total of 16 ruthlessly as many publishers rejected the book's manuscript .1966 years of sporadic in the newspaper published several articles mentioned on the same subject, the reader response was so overwhelming, attracted the trend of all, if Wu Mandarin Duck Press . As Peter mentioned in his autobiography, people occasionally glimpse in the mirror and can not figure their immediate self-identification, so not to be laughed at before knowing about it, just like a moment where you can make to further understand their own So no matter how much winning or losing, positive and negative balance, the sum of the last games are zero, which is zero-sum game.
reason for concern in zero-sum game, because people everywhere in social life can be found with the zero-sum the phenomenon of identical or similar games. We vigorously coal development and utilization of oil resources, fewer and fewer will be left to future generations; we study the production of a large number of genetically modified products, along with some of the new virus to take out; we built the Gezhouba Engineering, dolphin can no longer migrate to the hh
spawning the development of the Jinsha River is the last word. mankind has experienced rapid economic growth, rapid development of science and technology, said the global economy and benefit the serious ecological damage, environmental pollution after sustainable development theory gradually emerge. zero-sum game theory is being gradually Practice has proved that through effective cooperation, to achieve a happy ending is possible.
leading out to be good at results. criticized the subordinate how to do it accepted without conflict, economic development and how to ensure that no damage to the environment, how to compete to win and not let themselves be hurt each other, these are each official should think carefully problem.
Again, there were no standard answer ready. The law of business management for our reference and reference only, as the conditions under which for reference, go back to watch Theorem, you need to choose a comfortable and accurate time and wearing a watch.
VIII, Washington, Washington, co-co-laws
law say is: a man half-heartedly, two people passing the buck, three people were never brought to fruition the day. how much somewhat similar to the are 1, then the results are sometimes 10 people in co-operation is much greater than 10, sometimes even smaller than 1. because people are not static objects, but rather the energy of a different direction, promoting each other naturally be more effective, when the conflicting nothing.
nine, wine and liquor and effluent of sewage Law
Law means that if a spoonful of wine into a bucket of water, you get a bucket of water; if a spoonful of sewage poured into a bucket wine, or you get a bucket of water. almost any organization, there are several hard to get all the characters, their purpose of existence seems to messed it up. Everywhere they sow discord, spread rumors to undermine the harmony within the organization . Worse, they like the fruit rotten apples in the box, if you do not in time, it will quickly transmitted to other Apple fruit box smash, amazing damage. an honest and competent people into a chaotic department may be swallowed, but only one non-German who can soon be turned into a mess of a highly efficient department. organizational systems are often fragile, is based on mutual understanding, on the basis of compromise and tolerance, it can easily be violated, was poisoned. vandals extraordinary ability is another important reason is easy to destroy than to build. a skilled craftsman to spend time carefully crafted ceramics, a donkey can destroy a second away. If you have more craftsmen, nor how many decent work. If your organization has such a donkey, you should immediately rid of it; if you unable to do so, you should put it tied up.
ten, a bucket a bucket Law
depends on how much water the bucket can hold the shortest piece of wood rather than the longest piece of wood.
Almost any organization have a common characteristic, that constitute the organization's strengths and weaknesses of each part is often missing, but the inferior part of the organization often determines the level of the whole. The problem is the inferior part is a useful part of the organization, you can not Think of it as rotten apples thrown away, otherwise you will not install any water, but it is what makes you that long white long!
disadvantage decided advantages, and disadvantages between life and death, this is the brutal competition in the market rules. buckets law tells us, have a sense of leadership, if some aspect of your own body is the shortest plank, efforts. Some people may not know buckets law, but they know that > decision-making and implementation to occur. dedicated to planning for people planning to allow the implementation of the full implementation of the people so that they are the indirect rather than direct from the utilitarian, so that we can to There should also be essential to independent oversight.
XI
mushroom mushroom management principles long in the dark corners, lack of sunlight, no fertilizer, to fend for themselves, and only when a high long enough began to be concerned about, you can point it out that they have to accept the sun.
mushroom management is the early treatment of most organizations beginners, a management method for beginners. from the traditional concept of sense, , and before long it soaring high weeds growing up I'm afraid it has been covered, and it is not the opportunity to grow; the second is lack of initiative, and some genes have been good mushrooms, a drilled earth to run into a stone, because without help, the results stillborn.
early beginners to a period of time when the rational thinking and handling problems. Leaders should be noted that this process can not be too long, too long will make it a negative degradation and even wither, the sun does not give instructions not to love not only their fate, and its growth is inhibited. how to make them successful in life through this period, as soon as possible lessons, mature, this is to be considered by leaders.
second, a question of money
When someone tells you: But this argument ignores the other side of it, it is fascinating, it is crazy, exciting side, but also the psychological aside the love of money aside. Marx said, money is the means this respect.
on the nature of money, role and merits and demerits, throughout history, many brilliant people have left a profound and witty sayings. We often see people excited for the money, effort money, with the wealth of provocative images of themselves. the money of the world order and the impact of our lives is enormous, extensive, and sometimes this effect is a potential, we often are not aware of its role is so huge, but wonderful : it is entirely created by man himself. wealth is not the driving force of the needs of biological origin, animal life, can not find any of the same phenomenon. it can not comply with the basic objective, can not meet the basic needs - indeed, : A street beggar touch Tung Tau lottery. in the fifth prize, the proceeds 50. Jinki! better this winter, he has a jacket, trousers, and cotton-padded out. Street also went to the western end of the beggar Lottery. the first prize money was 50 million. ecstatic!
first banquet guests, busy days, it is truly beautiful, the consumption of the 3-thousand piece of cake. then buy a suit, with cell phone, wear gold and silver, radiant, sweeping away the poor gas. Again, buy a house, wandering the streets, to bring the garage. Fourth, bought a car. or In the labor camp, reportedly because of gambling, prostitution, drug abuse, trouble has a 50 hh, street beggars Tung Tau is no longer cold, their own entertainment; has 50 million, the western end street beggars became a millionaire, but but also their present a blind alley. do not know how to make good use of riches, or money to the safe point.
XIII, Occam's razor Law
12 century, the United Kingdom William of Ockham advocated nominalism , only recognized the existence of things, that those empty universality of the concept is useless burden, should be ruthlessly often say hundred years, history of Occam's razor has been worn more and more rapidly, and has already overloaded the original narrow field, and a broad, rich and profound meaning.
law of Occam's razor in business management can be further law of evolution for the simple and complex: simple things become complicated, simple things become very complicated. This law requires that we deal with things, to grasp the main essence of things, grasp the mainstream to address the most fundamental problem, in particular, must adapt Naturally, not artificially complicate things, in order to handle things.
American political scientist and criminologist Kaelin Wilson made through observation of the a piece of glass on a building, and no timely repair, others may be implied by the connivance of some to break more glass. Over time, these windows to give the feeling caused by a disorder in which an atmosphere of indifferent species, crime will breed and spread.
different point of view, the reason is similar: a strong hint of the environment and induced, must be promptly repaired, see around us in life many things happened, is it not the role of environmental cues and the result you induce?
example, in the bright and clean, elegant environment of the place, no one will make much noise, or to spit out a single sputum; the contrary, if the environment is filthy,'d always can see spit, urinate, slapstick, curse each other do not do ...