Cho super investment verse (6)

 Super Investment verse Cho (2009 m2010 on Center)
mm2007 stock market started to decline in October the main reason: First, I am facing the global unemployment rate to rise, do not you agree a series of structural and cyclical; Second, I place Net profit enterprises are also facing down the waves, fall at home among the strongest lines threatened the financial industry and the IT industry, followed by the Department of Industry and Materials, and even utilities. This year through the interest rate down to near zero to trigger wave of asset appreciation, Nuisance people resistance can be worth a few know. As the face of both the general public salaries, interest or dividend income are down, but the daily price of daily necessities, Department of Link up. this year affected the United States there are about ten thousand babies born after the war when you join the ranks of retired and found the hands of the retirement pension Do not sufficient to meet expenses, and only rely on social welfare payments. the next two decades the situation they are all like that, you then a good point? United States after Japan to poverty, how many of the Hong Kong situation is good cannot, exception of China, China is only .2000 and the United States only 12% of GDP, 28% in 2008, has lines, it is estimated that by 2025 had been equivalent to U.S. GDP. that the next decade, Department still optimistic about the prospects of China (A shares into 8, 2009 began the month of adjustment). the United States from October 2007 onwards into the destruction of credit to the financial crisis and not you agree this year to over Zo, only the middle line into the rest period, the situation is like in 1930.
mm down to the last dollar divided into three periods, the first time in 1971, floating exchange rate system to the United States announced in early 1980, the U.S. exchange rate index fell by 120 points to 80 points, or 33%, there the longest period of post-war inflation period. the second time in 1985 March to September 1992, the U.S. exchange rate index fell to 78.2 from the 164.7, down 52.5%. what time line segment of the U.S. economic boom, the high inflation rate and the Well (although the U.S. exchange rate index declined more than 1971-1979 times greater Pulled .) Third Department in July 2001 to March 2008, the U.S. Department of index fell 121 points to 70 points, or 42%, the U.S. property prices, equity prices and commodity prices fell after the first and only gold in 2001 still rising. As the United States since March this year, generous exchange decreases, yet fell below 21 March 2008 70.69 generous, future trends point system? not yet clear. from the United States Department of the performance over the past three years, to find them U.S. Department of the causal relationship between the strength of generous and the price of gold, but also to find them out of the U.S. Department of the strength of a causal relationship with the CPI generous, or even to find them out of the strength of the U.S. Department of generous economic relations with the United States.
understand the U.S. dollar peg sky news Dance
1983 since November 10 with the Hong Kong dollar pegged to the dollar, U.S. dollar strength of the Hong Kong economy is very large; for example, from 1980 to 1985 March strength of the dollar, the Hong Kong economy hard hit since 1981; to 1985 March from the weak dollar, also foster the economic recovery began .1995 generous strength of the dollar triggered the 1997 Asian financial crisis, from December 2007 to March 2009 the Hong Kong stock of generous strength of the dollar is also very large. from March 2009 onwards The weak dollar, so Hong Kong stocks up sharply. As the system is an existing twenty-six years of industry have gradually mastered the rhythm, be able to ; of the trend is still moving average index is most useful. I Laocao Again, the chart only as a trend analysis of individual stocks.
mm popularity since the computer, even the new-born babies only take three months to study trend analysis , can dawn skills, Zhongyou several purposes? The Economist, human error, drainage, use of a large number of assumptions (assumptions) to make standards mode, even mistakenly believe that the Department of Economics catch channel estimation mode. economy has never not you agree 1 +1 = 2 Link is simple, proven economics ability to predict the future home of the Well and the Observatory Link accurate weather forecasts. But I still need to Ming, after doing the work of economists, for example, after the financial crisis to explain the causes of drainage, but not you agree when predicted recurrence. comparison of trust? Department of trend analysis tools are still investment law, the general direction of drainage after the stock market earn the following, until the end.
mm If you make five predictions, the chance of each department in 50%, then add up all the only less than 10% probability. In other words, the more your forecast, will lower the probability of hit! Link danger by home market, stock prices shot up can either fall, hit rate will be lower.
mm1982 generous in the beginning to the 2007 global economic boom, founded on sound production, mainly in China and the United States mainly generous generous in the consumer market. Over the past twenty-five years to benefit both sides, with the large flow of dollars from the United States, China, China began to worry that generous dollar purchasing power, the situation has changed since then as the world's Well. 97% of future population growth from Asia, Africa, India and Latin America; the other hand, Europe and North America as in Japan, is entering a period of population aging. what a For the next big trend, investors should think about the future trend of point-like adaptation.
aging population in China 2035 years ago, will Bei, only twenty years later than the United States. China is facing sluggish external demand, this depends heavily investment to stimulate the economy. As for consumption, social disparities in China, 1% of the population controlled 50% of the wealth, Wu Si foreign countries have a large middle class. it views China's export-led to domestic demand, there will be a painful transition . Hong Kong's domestic demand-led growth period of 23 years, China will be how long? probably know afterwards, but I guess that should be longer than in Hong Kong.
mm2007 Department of Chinese enterprises in OEM, the OEM, ODM and three to fill a Hong Kong is like the eighties. foundry whole industry chain system the most generous low-end, all the pollution problem by the foundry company to pay, profits have owned brands. foundry eighties transformation of Hong Kong from domestic consumption (room real estate and financial) economy, to put it opportune .2008 transformation from the foundry in China domestic consumption, the difficulties faced by the more generous the eighties Hong Kong, Taiwan and even large than the nineties.
mm many interesting facts generous, investment fund managers, Department of conversation Well give her you know: A, 1997 年 7 month of date, buy stocks to buy bonds outperformed. B, 2001 年 1 until now to buy stocks to buy gold has outperformed. Over the past twelve years Hong Kong investment projects in the Department of the worst real estate generous long-term investment. However, old habits die hard, and most people still believed to hold property for preservation; stock attractive than gold; bond Nuisance value of investments and so on. C, ring the appropriate hold time appropriate projects in order to obtain higher returns, there is no long-term investment objectives generous system only a waste of time.
mm so-called Chinese model of economic, on the Department of
the first three years of reform and opening up, the Department of the Chinese people from poverty and start from scratch, and every non-forward .2008 China has nothing positive on the benefit distribution. According to economics generous However, when the economy Zo success, officials and people will no longer be consistent with the interests, the market appears privilege, **, fb, collusion, monopoly resulting institutions, bureaucracy and so on. If you can not properly address these problems, the Government will gradually become further economic generous development of resistance. above affected Southeast Asian countries and South American countries is quite common. A generous share future success depends on political reform.
mm the new standard is emerging capitalist
2007 年 11 months since ; The Old Rules of Money No Longer Work!, Well unfortunately most investors Bei most appropriate time, make the most generous things right Well. Wushao were not clear the huge U.S. budget deficit, credit crunch and financial crisis caused by the impact of generous , still believe that the United States since 1900 began the golden age will continue generous. In fact, as early as the first warning sound bubble burst in 2000 has been issued, the U.S. Department Well then the wealth creators, but a destroyer of wealth; contrast generous, led by China Eastern human values is on the rise, such as savings, thrift and responsible (for example, to make ends meet Well the long term). investment earnings should grow together and not you agree with the enterprise through speculation. a new standard in the establishment of the capitalist generous in replacing sooner or later Past generous economic theory. as generous people both understand the benefits of the American capitalist system, but also understand the Chinese people generous values; new theory after the formation of generous capital, will gradually replace the eighties the rise of economic theory generous Libreville field. London School of Economics 慨 Richard Layard believes that the fifties and sixties Bei generous system of the implementation of the United Kingdom and the United States, it is happy, more equitable society, people are more gentle and more environmentally-friendly society. Capital markets are generous capitalists from making mistakes take away the capital also give her do the generous capitalists, and Well Bei � grant bonuses suitors (I Laocao the past been opposed to the same senior staff bonuses linked to company turnover or profit, it held that corporate officers to sell their busy lives to pursue short-term interests of shareholders ).
mm currency the end of of trends from 1870 to the end of 1914, a total of forty four years, China's January 30 .3 agreement with Argentina, the future for the RMB settlement of trade, then a Department of the fifth country to agree to South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Belarus), the Chinese government began to internationalization of the RMB, and Bei G20 in the fight for leadership. the international financial community that the World Bank invited a Chinese Zo (former newspaper writer Justin Lin) do Chief Economist After scientists, IMF will be invited to another as the chief economist of the Chinese people, so that the international monetary system in China Bei generous influence gradually increased. People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has recently proposed the establishment of a super-sovereign reserve currency, although U.S. President Austria Bama said no necessary immediate response. it plays the first time the Chinese Government, Department of Bei position to challenge the dollar on the international stage. of industry estimates, eight years after the currency will be a . what a transformation of the international monetary system meet the world's most generous benefits. As of January this year only, the global capital markets and real estate loss of 80 trillion to 100 trillion U.S. dollars, resulting in the next three to five years, a serious global financial body mobility imbalance. If the yuan can quickly become an international reserve, just to fill the generous enough to form a modern version of reserve currency, and the next eight years the United States, the Euro and the generous interaction and integration between the RMB will continue to lead the international financial turmoil.
next eight years, the RMB will gradually enter the international market, such as large currency swap agreement reached to RMB international bond issue or as a reserve currency and other foreign central banks. the next three to five years, China must open its capital eight years after the project completely open foreign exchange settlement and to put onto the international currency status yuan, while Shanghai has become an international financial center.
Recently a series of actions the Chinese government can resolve to make the RMB Didao drainage on the international monetary scene: A New World Order is being established, the U.S. dollar as generous 1900 pounds, is down in position. Shanghai central support ring, began to establish international financial center and to the Chinese concept of the inherent generous living within our means for the consumer. according to The Wood A financing, of the financial tsunami crisis into opportunity, and has been supporting the NPC Standing Committee; China began to transform the old world financial order to create a new financial system and generous platform for China to play on the global financial impact. on the Chinese people speak both Li Department of the opportunities the future will also mandate. it plays Zhou Department has prepared and made speeches; Shanghai will sooner or later become the new capitalist system, generous international financial center. Xinhuanet March 31 announcement, Listing Interim Measures Brussels, London or Zurich (during World War II); generous Frankfurt and New York after the war; oil crisis generous Tokyo; after 1990, joined the Hong Kong and Singapore. Shanghai as an international financial center, the other not even a D odd, if history me if u want to know, all good little international financial center to maintain more than two hundred years (the longest home scare in London, but the status of sterling since 1931 the status of a downturn in Yiling generous increase in New York; dollar's status, down since 1971 slope, so that once the status of emerging Tokyo).
mm History tells us that every major incident was in some countries will decline, and the other to seize the historic opportunity in some countries the rise. such as the fourteenth century European Renaissance, eighteenth-century British Industrial Revolution, World War I and the rise of the United States after World War II generous, generous after the 1973 oil crisis, Germany and Japan. it views the financial tsunami, who is declining, who rise?
mm stock market to go Before the economy; October 2008 Hang Seng Index rebounded from its record low in 2009, the Hong Kong economy continues to deteriorate. I go to the stock market can forecast economic future, not to predict the stock market by economic future.
mm generous investment system to find tomorrow large companies (not you agree yesterday generous large enterprises) bovine investment law told me to learn Vultures (vultures), which ring the sky, Yanguangruili, a target will see immediate action, the speed of lightning toward the prey. For example, with a share 1 per purchase penny stocks, rose after the 10 Dizhu drainage yuan, 20 yuan hh. vulture attacks have been injured generous favorite prey (ie, generous companies in question, the use of channels to turn around generous opportunity to profit) . Please Invest like a dealmaker, bear only limited risk and unlimited pursuit of profit. After 2008, the stock market is filled with generous injured prey (ie, � D generous price much lower than the net asset value of the company), can be a bald eagle hunting in the future object. stock market not an investment market, and a system of capital flows (fund flow) decided to lift generous place. for ordinary investors could tie a generous world so hard to understand, for example, Wu Shao Do not understand the oil price still may sound just six points months fell from the $ 147 37 dollars a barrel? in fact only the results of Department of generous capital flows change, nothing to do with the fundamentals.
mm Bei financial markets do not attempt to be a hero (a hero in Do not easy to enterprises), should be bystanders. Bei financial markets to look carefully, carefully verify the first opportunity it all out, remember the My dearest friends who die stride, Do not remain operational status of those who died fighting to live is tomorrow!)
mm Bei bull market investors should learn to make money, ringing a bear market development (Bei bull market, stock prices rise velocity is very slow; the bear market rebound, Yu scared all up 100%). I believe the coming days will bear more and more people are interested in catching the foot.
mm bear market in stocks in the Dow back to 200 once the Department of short-term sell signal on the antenna. (Hong Kong and the Mainland is the antenna by 250)
mm recession is usually mid-Bei (the bear market phase), second-line stocks will perform well; but the bear market and bear market phase of three, second-line stocks registered a larger decline.
mm with the stock market, only winners and losers Nuisance large and small investors to the other; to make money do not care about long-term, short-term, only care to grasp the trend. homeopathic prosper, contrarian perish.
mm world for wisdom and method are threefold: First, through through their own thought, is the most noble way; Second, by imitation of intelligent people, is the easiest method; three, through experiential learning, is the most painful way.
mm young people entering Hong Kong on the Generation R
Japanese young people gather weekly ring the park, armed with banners protesting the lack of decline in employment and promotion opportunities for the U.S. economy into stagflation .1960's period of young Americans under the pretext of anti-Vietnam War, has appeared nationwide wave. Today, Hong Kong MILK magazine (reflecting younger) generation is also to protest what I Laocao sun fried your D floor of the stock, while Refused retirement, impeding drainage in employment opportunities with generous promotions. You can say that today's younger generation to post-war baby boomers I less generous in the world, has been everywhere, such as the Japanese stock market has come down to two decades, the Hong Kong property prices since 1997 appears only V-shaped rebound years. the future of the younger generation of Hong Kong Department of points? the 1980s, Hong Kong is facing the loss of manufacturing jobs, Over the past three decades in the industry who suffered a heavy blow in October .2007 face of financial crisis, Hong Kong, Japan will, as in the 1990s, young people entering the Generation R (recession in a generation)? Following the financial sector, Hong Kong can develop Chung baa Ye? IP? do not attempt to self-deception friends. I worry that Hong Kong young people to have access to Laocao lost generation carry on!
two weeks ago, I accept the milk Laocao magazine interviews (on behalf of the younger generation generous magazine), the magazine reporter that I have to do generation (post-war baby generation) accounted for all the wonderful generous thing to Hong Kong, thus making X channel to be dimmed expectations for the future generations and not lose heart. so full of resentment mettle several interesting conclusions. I wish Didi South Korea generous to the young generation, drainage, full of ideas; then Difan the younger generation of Hong Kong, Wu Shao became Miyake tram male or female. I Laocao asked the Hong Kong X generation of young people to develop your generous new world, only innovation can change the future, instead of complaining . not to mention today's young generation hampered upper generous do not you agree I have to generation (the post-war baby), and Department of the Chinese concept of generous family.
Department of Hong Kong enterprises in the most basic unit of the best, followed by acquaintances, strangers even the second. tend to prevail over the interests of the family business interests. ring Link circumstances, non-family members and points will be loyal to the business? Wushao all important business almost entirely by the family members posts occupied, so really useful talents so hard into the inner core generous class of men to form companies. we Bei enterprise and feelings, family, human, light, justice, truth, principle. Therefore, most Chinese companies a big deal, because Nuisance sound system, also do not talk about the legal system, the so-called shareholders,UGG boots cheap, board of supervisors, Bei basically can not happen under the rule of man role, often led into a personal (ie, if something Chairman); with the employee relations, and then reduce the generous enthusiasm of staff. When business generation gradually exit from the core reason behind the second generation took over, the problem surfaced .1997 stagnant economy, the biggest reason the family business system, and not you agree I have to do generation ( Since the baby) to block the X generation upper. In fact, the Department of the Chinese people so generous sense of family, generation X can not be reused by the strength and complaining.
mm on the market usually has three funds: one to follow the trend of smart money; II stupid money gone against the tide line; Third, a lot of money go with the flow. silly money not only to the party no later than the first, while generous, Department of popular fashion wear in the previous quarter; success never end, but failed there, because when an investment is successful, the other an investment and wait for you to challenge; the contrary, after the failure of an investment, you have capital to play with another Nuisance. Why does a system less successful in society, losers and more generous grounds.
mmBloody L-shaped economic < br> 1980 至 1982 American economy had emerged due August 1982 low the stock market lower than April 1980; the contrary, the Hong Kong Department of Pulled a dynamic W-shaped, due July 1984 low of Nuisance December 1982 Pulled from a low in the low .1982, Although the U.S. economic recovery, but still lazy Department; Hong Kong since the second half of 1984 appears generous Hong Kong stocks soared. the United States from 1980 to 1982 W-shaped recession generous hand from the cigar-volt caused by high interest rates to curb drainage of high inflation, to 1982 successful control of inflation, the economy flourished again. Hong Kong from 1981 to 1984 Pulled a W-shaped due to the fear caused by the resumption of sovereignty, Yi Yin solve the problem of sovereignty, so that recovery from July 1984.
recession in the United States in 2009 by the Financial crisis, the situation is the same one like in 1990 � Japan, London, people fear a generous Bloody L-shaped about the economy, that economy has entered a long-term low growth. Bloody L is worse than the double-dip, because of the financial crisis has changed the rules of the game, so Well clear permanent. the new rules system you win I lose, then not you agree long-term real profit. but so far only very few people believe that rules of the game has changed. Wuxin The golden age of wealth creation to the generous people in 2007 into the final book of big majority. the stock market has become composed of many fragments (fragment) components; the next winning or losing when the stock market and when away from the city to decide, and then not you agree a long-term holding.
Why I Laocao again that the U.S. stock market in 2009 3 Department of months to December bull market bear market two rebound not you agree? one, into a lack of liquidity in the financial system, reasons are deleveraging; Second, companies only paper thin generous Link profits, so that enterprises lack the desire to invest; Third, the global this year trade system in the first quarter dropped significantly increased not you agree, on behalf of it plays the stock market rising, Department of Building on Bei Well it plays also an exception. for most people miss in October 2007 before the generous good life, then a second phase of growth momentum, Department of the bear market; drainage to Wuxin Climactic capitulation theory (bear generous foot high tide caused by the sell-off). < br> mm2009 generous crisis lines in the U.S. bond market fell. John Hussman Ph.D. estimate in October of this year through the Federal Reserve began easing monetary policy, effectively forced the U.S. dollar and interest rates drop, the market value of U.S. bonds increased by 26%. what kind of manipulation of human Several resistance can be maintained? only two results: first, such as the U.S. dollar stability, U.S. bonds will plunge; II, such as U.S. Treasuries stable U.S. dollar will plunge; Well may exist between the two. I tend to believe that Department of the former and Laocao not the latter, that the dollar will stabilize in 2009, U.S. bond prices fell. as France, China and Japan have complained the U.S. dollar depreciation of the U.S. government to increase the use of competitive advantage; EU threat to the WTO complaint. the Air Li needless Several anti-Fed can no longer push the U.S. dollar and interest rates stay, this way, the U.S. bond crash of 2009 may sound!
mm officially entered the U.S. economy with low interest rates, low inflation, low GDP growth rate of the simultaneous generous era of high unemployment. Doug Casey believes that U.S. stocks since 2000 has entered a bear market two decades, the situation is almost the same in Japan in 1990. the point of super bear to see, from the U.S. stock market bear market began in 1966, the end of 1982. As for super bull market from 1982, the end of 2000 (Note: Cho super is that the super bull market in U.S. stocks by the beginning of 1932, the end of 2007, by October 2007 super bear market opening) in October 2002 to 10 in 2007 increased by Department of cyclical bull market should be (Cyclical bull market), the Bei endless generous super bear market which seems like a rather generous soared City (due in October 2007 P / E still low in March 2000) . How the endless sound super generous to capture it in a bear market or a big cyclical bull rally class, such as the Hang Seng Index by the November 2008-December 2009 (U.S. stock market from March 2009 to 12 months)? it is very test Kung Fu also.
on the Hong Kong stock market: July 26, 2007 Hang Seng Index fell by the 23 557 points to 19,386 points on August 17, representatives of Hong Kong stock bear market has begun, then through the through train rumors, so that ring 2007 HSI on Oct. 30 rose to 31,958 points. In other words,Bailey UGG boots, the Hang Seng Index 23,557 points or more only to promote the Department of rumors, the Hang Seng Index to return to 23,000 in 2009 again fell on top of city. through generous depreciation of the dollar rose to promote the city has ended, you should be more careful.
on the U.S. stock market: October 2007 U.S. Department of generous microphone generous in January 1990 as if Japan entered the lost generation? March 2009 to December generous U.S. stocks rose in line microphone generous a bear market rally after completion of start another down market? the U.S. PPI (producer price index) in September fell by 4.7% from a year earlier, on behalf of deflationary pressure is still a big (though in March 2009 from the quantitative easing policy has been implemented zf) the year 1999 3 Dow month over ten thousand points the first time, was $ 280 per ounce gold price. home price of gold has risen 270% scared, but the Dow is still down the level of ten thousand points (such as the U.S. dollar are taken into account the declining purchasing power the U.S. stock market peak in March 2000, Department of). Since October 11, 2007 to March 6 this year, after the Dow dropped 54%, although 55% rebound, but has still only lost about 50% before recovering. calculated according to well-known analyst John Hussman, family threatened stocks is extremely overbought, and return to the November 28, 1980 level, the United States on a super bear market began to fall of 1966 mm, down to the November 1974 and then rose to November 1980; and then fell 30% to August 1982 until the end. last week publicly warned drainage, be careful what time the second wave of U.S. stocks bear market began, the Dow have the opportunity to come down from a million points level of 30%. U.S. stocks ring bear market early in March 2000 has begun. as generous reference to 1966 to 1982 bear market, it views U.S. stocks bear market is estimated to be around the end of 2015 In 2009 investors, who have gone through years of bear market, but is still interested in stock investment not less, because since October 2002 to October 2007 generous rebound, and in March 2009 to December generous rebound, are very attractive to investors. This year zf through quantitative easing policy by the tens of trillions of dollars created generous financial terms still are entering the market to support stock prices. As a condition it can maintain some resistance, wood sheep; ring zf substantial increase in debt at the same time, American companies are in debt and private, the situation is generous with Japan from 1990 to 2009 Similar conditions are better. This year was no substantial rebound in U.S. consumption, investment has not increased significantly.
mm What trends in investment law? This method is great emphasis on trend (Trend), commonly used in combination to analyze the general direction of moving averages, resistance area and support areas; with data analysis and objective analysis of the situation, the Department of generous combination of trend and market based analysis methods, great emphasis must be aware that you hold your shares and the generous generous in the industry, do not believe rumors and keep liquidity, etc. . the Air Li generous three decades the trend of globalization to the end of 2007 has ended on the ground by the generous oil prices since 1981 on, together with the container, computer popularity, driven by globalization of information, so that goods from Shanghai shipped to Chicago, very cheap cost of generous; but once oil prices in 2008 rose to $ 147, so that the container increased transportation costs three times higher than in previous years, the whole trend of globalization, the end of the first quarter of the global cargo .2009 by 20% ( China is still a large number of imported raw materials over the same period) is estimated to further decline in the second half of the global cargo traffic.
1970's, the global impact more and more women go out to work after marriage, so that household income into two, with fertility emergency or, by the 1970s, before the generous four children per family has decreased to two (depending on home Wushao there is only one.) increased household income, childcare expenses, however, reduced (due to decline in the number of children), so that by the 1960s, total U.S. consumption GDP 62% up to 72% in 2007, while the savings rate Bei dropped to 0.2% in 2008. However, these two trends are Bei end in 2008.
2008 millions of dollars in the global family wealth has a generous 14.9% reduction in the number , down to eight hundred and sixty million; wealth decreased by 19.5% to 33.8 trillion U.S. dollars. decrease in the size of Germany, only 2.7% reduction; then on Brazil, a decrease of 8.7%; Department of Hong Kong, the largest decline, reducing 61.3%; then on India to reduce 31.6%.
2008 年 Department of Hong Kong stocks badly hit, Wu Shao Hong Kong people and thus become older, wiser but poorer.
Cho over: the past 20 years, I have the same been introduce to the reader, hold Consider the August 1997 onwards, as people faced the Asian financial crisis, bubble burst and the subprime crisis in October 2007. Most investors, how can investment? So I changed to advocate ) no longer identify safe locking after buying nothing, and so it is the best policy for 10 years 8 contains, should be changed every day to review their investment. The concept is the biggest difference with Buffett. that is, to follow the idea that every day I review the investment Yuehanmodeng John Mauldin, he was in the United States this year, more than 100 million followers, I am only one of them.
mm price increase (CPI) inflation, I have to call; On the contrary, I rise in property prices and share prices have risen to call the bull market, down he called a bear market. But sometimes there ...